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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 7.32 (-29.4%) | 10.84 (+4.6%) | 14.92 (+44.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 7.68 (-25.8%) | 10.36 (+0.0%) | 13.97 (+34.8%) |
| Analysts’ targets | 11.21 (+8.3%) | 11.29 (+8.9%) | 11.36 (+9.6%) |
History since 2008; now 10.36. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.0% | 54.2% | 0.7% | 86 | 40%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 58.8% | 50.0% | 2.9% | 34 | 42%–74% | as usual |
| 1 year | 64.3% | 58.8% | 14.5% | 14 | 39%–84% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 53 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.276 vs 0.264 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.