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CTATF · Financials

Annual reports: Yahoo, amounts in millions of CNY. P/E — year-end price / EPS; — if the price history does not reach that year.

	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue	328,594	400,917	362,013	423,702
Net income	30,729	44,121	50,745	72,201
Gross margin	20.3%	19.2%	24.4%	26.3%
Operating margin	10.7%	12.9%	17.8%	19.2%
Net margin	9.4%	11.0%	14.0%	17.0%
EPS	7.16	10.05	11.58	16.14
Free cash flow	12,994	59,201	65,810	90,875
Net debt	-92,528	-139,155	-181,393	-272,850
P/E	—	—	—	—

Valuation by free cash flow (DCF)

A what-if tool for a 5–10 year investor, not an answer: change the assumptions and see what they do.

Value per share

72.52 USD

Upside to the estimate

+70.3%

Margin of safety 41.3%: investors often want 20–30% for forecast errors.

Growth priced in

-0.2%

Reverse DCF: FCF growth for 5 years that makes today’s price fair. Compare with what you believe.

	rate 6.3%	rate 7.3%	rate 8.3%
Bear · growth 3.8%	68.52	54.12	44.7
Base · growth 8.8%	92.47	72.52	59.47
Bull · growth 13.8%	123.85	96.53	78.69

FCF to shareholders 10,828 mln USD (operating cash flow − capex, after interest), shares 4,627 mln. Discounted at the shareholder rate, so debt is not subtracted again (assumes stable debt). 5 years of growth, 5 of slowdown, then perpetual growth. Sensitive to assumptions — see the table.