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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 16.03 (-26.1%) | 22.19 (+2.3%) | 30.65 (+41.2%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 14.54 (-33.0%) | 21.7 (+0.0%) | 32.39 (+49.3%) |
History since 2010; now 21.7. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 51.8% | 53.9% | 0.3% | 85 | 41%–62% | as usual |
| 3 months | 47.1% | 50.8% | -0.1% | 34 | 31%–63% | as usual |
| 1 year | 40.0% | 46.7% | -1.5% | 10 | 17%–69% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 46 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.299 vs 0.253 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.