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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 96.69 (-21.3%) | 129.28 (+5.3%) | 202.53 (+64.9%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 59.38 (-51.6%) | 122.79 (+0.0%) | 253.92 (+106.8%) |
History since 2013; now 122.79. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 50.9% | 49.3% | 0.6% | 57 | 38%–63% | as usual |
| 3 months | 59.1% | 58.3% | 3.8% | 22 | 39%–77% | as usual |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 58.3% | 4.6% | 8 | 22%–78% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 30 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.229 vs 0.263 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.