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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 373.14 (-19.3%) | 492.78 (+6.6%) | 758.66 (+64.0%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 305.75 (-33.9%) | 462.48 (+0.0%) | 699.56 (+51.3%) |
History since 2010; now 462.48. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: below SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 46.0% | 46.6% | 1.1% | 50 | 33%–60% | as usual |
| 3 months | 52.4% | 54.0% | 3.3% | 21 | 32%–72% | as usual |
| 1 year | 50.0% | 53.3% | 18.6% | 8 | 22%–78% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 45 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.273 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.