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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 38.43 (-20.7%) | 52.24 (+7.8%) | 69.16 (+42.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 33.76 (-30.4%) | 48.47 (+0.0%) | 69.6 (+43.6%) |
History since 2010; now 48.47. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 62.2% | 58.5% | 0.6% | 111 | 53%–71% | as usual |
| 3 months | 61.9% | 69.4% | 0.6% | 42 | 47%–75% | as usual |
| 1 year | 61.5% | 60.0% | 3.7% | 13 | 36%–82% | weak signal (few cases) |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 44 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.229 vs 0.239 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state adds a little knowledge.