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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 11.93 (-38.6%) | 19.09 (-1.7%) | 31.41 (+61.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 4.14 (-78.7%) | 19.42 (+0.0%) | 91.03 (+368.8%) |
History since 1990; now 19.42. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 < SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 30.1% | 45.1% | -3.0% | 123 | 23%–39% | a real difference |
| 3 months | 32.9% | 49.3% | 2.7% | 70 | 23%–44% | a real difference |
| 1 year | 35.7% | 52.8% | -6.1% | 28 | 21%–54% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 127 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.251 vs 0.248 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.