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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 20,366.68 (-19.9%) | 29,268.27 (+15.1%) | 35,529.81 (+39.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 19,993.19 (-21.4%) | 25,437 (+0.0%) | 32,363.08 (+27.2%) |
History since 1971; now 25,437. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 61.7% | 62.7% | 1.1% | 431 | 57%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 68.2% | 63.9% | 3.5% | 157 | 61%–75% | as usual |
| 1 year | 80.4% | 79.6% | 14.1% | 46 | 67%–89% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 202 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.236 vs 0.231 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.