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A probabilistic estimate from history and market opinion, not a guarantee and not investment advice.
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock history (any 12 months) | 6,355.79 (-16.2%) | 8,305.84 (+9.6%) | 9,910.74 (+30.7%) |
| Volatility (8 of 10 cases) | 6,431.39 (-15.2%) | 7,580.07 (+0.0%) | 8,933.91 (+17.9%) |
History since 1927; now 7,580.07. The wider the range, the less predictable the stock.
Today’s state: above SMA200 · SMA50 > SMA200 · RSI neutral
| Horizon | Rose after this state | Rose at any time | Avg change | Cases | 95% | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 62.2% | 59.6% | 0.9% | 762 | 59%–66% | as usual |
| 3 months | 67.5% | 63.1% | 2.5% | 274 | 62%–73% | as usual |
| 1 year | 73.4% | 69.1% | 10.7% | 79 | 63%–82% | as usual |
Walk-forward check (3 mo, 373 forecasts, each from past data only): Brier score 0.235 vs 0.231 for the plain share of rises (lower is better). The stock’s state does not forecast better than “as usual”.